【摘要】：成品油應(yīng)急調(diào)運(yùn)是應(yīng)對(duì)各類災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資保障的重要內(nèi)容.本文運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)理論,研究影響成品油應(yīng)急調(diào)運(yùn)效率的主要因素。按照運(yùn)輸方式將成品油應(yīng)急調(diào)運(yùn)劃分為管道運(yùn)輸、鐵路運(yùn)輸、公路運(yùn)輸和水路運(yùn)輸四種,在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了成品油應(yīng)急調(diào)運(yùn)的系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,并以2008年汶川特大地震發(fā)生后中國(guó)石油集團(tuán)成品油應(yīng)急調(diào)運(yùn)活動(dòng)為例,進(jìn)行仿真驗(yàn)證。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):在成品油應(yīng)急調(diào)運(yùn)過(guò)程中,石油企業(yè)提升保障輸油管道安全的能力,可以有效增加管道運(yùn)輸速率;石油企業(yè)在政府的統(tǒng)籌協(xié)調(diào)下,加強(qiáng)與鐵路部門、水路部門的溝通協(xié)調(diào),可以有效提升鐵路運(yùn)輸和水路運(yùn)輸效率;采用以上三個(gè)應(yīng)急調(diào)運(yùn)策略,可以大幅度提升成品油應(yīng)急調(diào)運(yùn)能力.此外,通過(guò)提升公路運(yùn)輸速率,無(wú)法顯著增強(qiáng)成品油應(yīng)急調(diào)運(yùn)能力,但是可以作為一個(gè)可供選擇的策略.
[Abstract]:The emergency transportation of finished oil is an important part of emergency material support for all kinds of disasters. Based on the theory of system dynamics, this paper studies the main factors that affect the efficiency of emergency transportation of refined oil. According to the transportation mode, the product oil emergency transportation is divided into four types: pipeline transportation, railway transportation, road transportation and waterway transportation. On this basis, the system dynamics model of product oil emergency transportation is constructed. After the Wenchuan earthquake occurred in 2008, the simulation was carried out to verify the emergency transportation of finished oil products of China National Petroleum Group. It is found that in the process of emergency transportation of refined oil, oil enterprises can enhance the ability to ensure the safety of oil pipelines, which can effectively increase the transportation rate of pipelines; Under the overall coordination of the government, the petroleum enterprises can enhance the efficiency of railway transportation and waterway transportation effectively by strengthening the communication and coordination with the railway and waterway departments. By adopting the above three emergency dispatching strategies, the capacity of product oil emergency transportation can be greatly improved. In addition, it can not significantly enhance the capacity of oil product emergency transportation, but it can be used as an alternative strategy by increasing the speed of road transportation.
【作者單位】： 北京理工大學(xué)管理與經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目(71473015)~~
【分類號(hào)】：F426.22

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